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The 2013

CANADIAN UFO SURVEY:

an analysis of UFO reports

in Canada

 

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

 

 

 

Compiled by

Geoff Dittman

and

Chris A. Rutkowski

with

Ashley Kircher

 


Data Sources:

 

Yukon UFO

UFO Updates

Para-Researchers of Ontario

National UFO Reporting Center

Filers Files

UFOINFO

UFO*BC

UFOS North West

Alberta UFO Study Group

Mutual UFO Network

Houston, BC, Centre for UFO Research

Ufology Research

Transport Canada

National Defence and the Canadian Forces

YouTube

NOUFORS

PSICan

Sightings.com

GARPAN

Centre d'Études des OVNIs

 

 

 

Editor

Chris Rutkowski, Ufology Research

 

 

Data Entry, Compilation and Analyses

Geoff Dittman, Ufology Research

Ashley Kircher, Ufology Research

 

 

 

Published by

Ufology Research

Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada

 

© 2014 Ufology Research


The 2013 Canadian UFO Survey

 

Overview

 

Since 1989, Ufology Research (formerly Ufology Research of Manitoba) has solicited UFO case data from known and active investigators and researchers in Canada. The goal has been to provide data for use by researchers trying to understand this controversial phenomenon. No comparable studies are currently produced by any other research group in North America. Similar programs exist in several other countries such as Sweden, where UFO report data is analysed by the Archives for UFO Research, and in Italy by Centro Italiano Studi Ufologici.

 

2013 marked the 25th year of collecting and analysing Canadian UFO report data by Ufology Research. A 25-year compilation and analyses of a quarter-century of Canadian UFO data is in preparation.

 

With some gaps in data, tables of most Canadian UFO reports included in the annual surveys from 1989 to the present are available online at: http://survey.canadianuforeport.com

 


The 2013 Canadian UFO Survey: Summary of Results

 

·         There were 1,180 UFO sightings reported in Canada in 2013, or about three each day. 

 

·         The number of cases in 2013 is the second-highest number of UFO sightings recorded in Canada during the last 25 years.

 

·         The 1,180 UFO cases reported in 2013 is much less than the peak year of 2012, when almost 2,000 reports were recorded. We suspect this was an anomaly, and likely due to many people excited about the so-called “end of the world” in 2012 according to the Mayan Calendar.

 

·         In 2013, Ontario had more than 40 per cent of all Canadian UFO reports.

 

·         In 2013, about 14 per cent of all UFO reports were classified as unexplained.

 

·         The typical UFO sighting lasted approximately 13 minutes in 2013.

 

The study found that more than half of all UFO sightings were of simple lights in the sky. Witnesses also reported point sources of light, spheres and boomerangs.

Results of this study show that many people continue to report unusual objects in the sky, and some of these objects do not have obvious explanations. Many witnesses are pilots, police and other individuals with reasonably good observing capabilities and good judgement.

Numbers of reported UFO sightings remain high. Several theories for this can be suggested: more UFOs are present and physically observable by witnesses; more secret or classified military exercises and overflights are occurring over populated areas; more people are unaware of the nature of conventional or natural objects in the sky; more people are taking the time to observe their surroundings; more people are able to report their sightings with easier access to the Internet and portable technology; or even that the downturn in the economy is leading to an increased desire by some people to look skyward for assistance.

Although the largest percentage of reported UFOs is simply lights in the night sky, a small number are objects with definite shapes observed within the witnesses’ frame of reference.

Popular opinion to the contrary, there is no incontrovertible evidence that some UFO cases involve extraterrestrial contact. The continued reporting of UFOs by the public and the yearly increase in numbers of UFO reports suggests a need for further examination of the phenomenon by social, medical and/or physical scientists.

 

For further information, contact:

Ufology Research via e-mail: canadianuforeport@hotmail.com

Twitter: @ufologyresearch


 


UFO Reports in Canada

 

The following table shows the number of reported UFOs per year since 1989, collected by Ufology Research.

 

Year

Number

Average

1989

141

141.0

1990

194

167.5

1991

165

166.7

1992

223

180.8

1993

489

242.4

1994

189

233.5

1995

183

226.3

1996

258

230.3

1997

284

236.2

1998

194

232.0

1999

259

234.5

2000

263

236.8

2001

374

247.4

2002

483

264.2

2003

673

291.5

2004

882

328.4

2005

769

354.3

2006

738

375.8

2007

794

399.8

2008

1004

430.0

2009*

 

 

2010

968

438.2

2011

986

461.9

2012

1981

525.3

2013

1180

551.4

Total

13786

 

 


*― Data for 2009 has not yet been added to the database.

 

The number of UFO reports per year has varied, although there has been a general trend towards a steady increase in yearly UFO report numbers over 25 years, with spikes in some years such as 1993, 2008 and 2013, when there were almost 2,000 reports in one year. Although there may be a perceived notion that UFOs are not being reported with as much frequency as in the past, this is not true. UFOs have not “gone away.” This data clearly contradicts comments by those who would assert that UFOs are a ‘passing fad’ or that UFO sightings are decreasing.

 

Method

 

Data for each case was obtained by Ufology Research from participating researchers across Canada or through data mining of known websites devoted to UFO reports. The information then was coded by members of Ufology Research and entered into a database and statistically analysed.

 

An example of the coding key is as follows:

 

Example: 2013  01 09 1530 Vernon BC DD 900 silver  2    ps  6   5  UFOBC  p  4 objs. seen

 

Field:        1        2   3     4         5        6    7    8        9    10   11 12 13    14       15    16

 

Field 1 is a default YEAR for the report.

Field 2 is the MONTH of the incident.

Field 3 is the DATE of the sighting.

Field 4 is the local TIME, on the 24-hour clock.

Field 5 is the geographical LOCATION of the incident. 

Field 6 is the PROVINCE where the sighting occurred.

Field 7 is the TYPE of report, using the Modified Hynek Classification System.

Field 8 is the DURATION of the sighting, in seconds (a value of 600 thus represents 10 minutes).

Field 9 is the primary COLOUR of the object(s) seen

Field 10 is the number of WITNESSES

Field 11 is the SHAPE of the object(s) seen

Field 12 is the STRANGENESS of the report.

Field 13 is the RELIABILITY of the report.

Field 14 is the SOURCE of the report.

Field 15 is the EVALUATION of the case.

Field 16 includes any COMMENTS noted about the case.

 


 

Analyses of the Data

 

Distribution of UFO Reports Across Canada

 


In 2013, Ontario had about 41 per cent of the total number of UFO sightings reported in Canada, the most reports of any province, and exactly the same percentage as in both 2011 and 2012. British Columbia was second, with about 25 per cent of the total. If UFO reporting was simply a factor of population, one would expect percentages of 37 per cent for Ontario and 13 per cent for BC.

 

TABLE 1

     Distribution of UFO Reports by Province

 

 

NT

NU

YT

BC

AB

SK

MB

ON

PQ

NB

NS

PI

NF

1989

1

0

0

15

16

18

22

34

28

1

3

0

3

1990

2

0

1

76

9

10

20

21

36

7

5

3

4

1991

0

0

1

59

22

7

6

30

16

9

7

1

4

1992

1

0

3

90

8

9

23

56

10

9

3

0

4

1993

5

0

0

157

56

93

74

51

32

3

3

1

7

1994

3

0

3

14

39

8

10

51

34

6

9

0

6

1995

4

0

0

45

10

11

48

41

20

0

1

0

1

1996

35

0

0

43

10

11

39

63

45

1

9

0

1

1997

22

0

8

99

11

5

32

72

24

1

6

1

3

1998

2

0

22

58

6

14

15

59

15

1

0

1

0

1999

0

0

20

118

19

1

6

79

8

1

0

1

6

2000

0

0

26

102

17

8

19

53

22

0

15

0

0

2001

1

5

18

123

40

12

20

87

34

5

21

2

6

2002

0

2

20

176

51

6

36

128

34

4

23

0

3

2003

2

1

16

304

76

19

25

150

49

4

21

2

4

2004

3

1

2

247

99

45

112

254

64

21

23

2

9

2005

1

0

3

209

90

77

43

214

77

15

16

4

12

2006

2

8

1

209

55

98

54

188

76

12

25

1

5

2007

6

0

7

192

66

36

44

329

93

24

31

2

6

2008

0

1

6

272

157

41

52

334

62

28

34

2

10

2009*

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2010

0

0

3

204

85

30

88

405

71

25

42

5

9

2011

2

1

3

216

101

31

81

406

77

27

31

2

5

2012

0

0

6

399

323

55

124

822

124

41

61

2

23

2013

4

0

2

298

129

33

65

480

86

32

31

2

8

 

NT

NU

YT

BC

AB

SK

MB

ON

PQ

NB

NS

PI

NF

Total

95

19

171

3770

1496

663

1075

4428

1151

278

420

34

140

 

 

In addition, geographical names of UFO sighting locations were examined for trends. Many cities were found to have multiple reports, and these are noted in the following table. Large metropolitan areas include their suburbs.

 

Canadian Cities With Most UFO Reports in 2012

 

Rank

City

Province

Number of Reports

1

Vancouver

BC

116

2

Toronto

ON

111

3

Winnipeg

MB

39

4

Calgary

AB

37

5

Hamilton

ON

36

 

 

 

 

Metropolitan Areas

 

 

 

Vancouver

(Incl. New Westminister, W. Van., N. Van., Burnaby, Surrey, Abbottsford, Port Coquitlam, Langley, N. Surrey, N. Langley, Richmond, Delta, N. Delta, Coquitlam, Port Moody)

 

116

Toronto

(Incl. Mississauga, Brampton, Scarborough, Oshawa, Whitby, Ajax, Pickering, Etobicoke, Newmarket, Richmond Hill, Markham, Oakville)

 

111

 

 


 

Monthly Trends in UFO Reports

 

Monthly breakdowns of reports during each year tend to show slightly different patterns. UFO reports are generally thought to peak in summer and are at minimum in winter, presumably due to the more pleasant observing conditions during the summer months, when more witnesses are outside. In Canada in 2013, July and August numbers were again high, but report numbers were unusually high in January as well.

 

 

 

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

1989

13

9

6

9

5

9

5

5

12

32

27

9

1990

17

7

6

47

10

10

9

47

15

16

10

0

1991

13

7

17

12

7

12

16

25

16

12

11

17

1992

15

16

27

16

22

16

23

19

11

16

21

21

1993

59

15

20

22

14

38

27

49

41

152

24

21

1994

16

12

15

21

15

37

19

8

15

10

7

13

1995

14

12

13

9

9

10

28

33

28

11

11

5

1996

37

18

20

16

8

20

30

32

10

22

30

11

1997

19

11

31

29

17

13

29

29

22

16

26

37

1998

3

4

8

5

9

13

16

40

45

35

7

4

1999

8

20

22

7

31

10

27

36

30

29

30

7

2000

21

17

15

21

12

11

19

46

20

44

15

19

2001

36

19

33

25

17

26

51

81

25

17

27

16

2002

31

54

41

28

36

44

73

74

42

26

19

14

2003

41

46

46

46

31

30

131

102

46

64

43

47

2004

59

53

72

68

82

97

96

113

83

46

56

53

2005

36

59

81

59

45

50

96

123

70

56

47

45

2006

33

43

41

66

65

108

113

113

61

36

20

29

2007

45

35

95

76

56

90

80

105

94

64

50

41

2008

64

65

66

58

81

71

148

128

114

82

94

33

2009

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2010

40

30

34

38

64

78

196

115

94

106

82

86

2011

94

64

67

63

76

69

102

142

97

91

48

72

2012

109

136

150

180

166

140

272

283

194

151

81

116

2013

117

43

69

53

122

153

156

146

83

98

63

68

 

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

Totals

952

802

995

979

1001

1166

1774

1915

1274

1226

854

792

 

 

UFO Report Types

 

An analysis by report type shows a similar breakdown to that found in previous years. The percentage of cases of a particular type remains roughly constant from year to year, with some variations. Proportionally, Daylight Discs increased significantly in 2013, but most cases still were Nocturnal Lights.

Just under two per cent of all reported UFO cases in 2013 were Close Encounters, emphasizing the reality that very few UFO cases involve anything other than distant objects seen in the sky. This is an important statistic, because the current popular interest in abductions and sensational UFO encounters is based not on the vast majority of UFO cases but on the very tiny fraction of cases which fall into the category of close encounters. Speculation on what aliens may or may not be doing in our airspace seems almost completely unconnected to what are actually being reported as UFOs.


 

 


TABLE 3

Report Types (Modified Hynek Classifications)

 

 

NL

ND

DD

C1

C2

C3

C4

EV

RD

PH

1989

84

20

16

10

7

0

2

2

0

0

1990

141

24

15

2

1

0

4

3

0

0

1991

110

26

13

7

4

1

2

0

1

1

1992

136

44

20

15

5

2

3

0

0

1

1993

372

77

26

8

2

1

1

1

0

0

1994/95

234

78

28

21

1

1

5

1

0

0

1996

170

40

27

8

3

4

1

2

0

0

1997

145

62

52

4

2

5

8

4

0

1

1998

115

23

25

6

1

0

0

19

0

3

1999

163

44

37

3

7

1

0

0

0

0

2000

179

31

26

4

2

2

0

0

0

3

2001

218

80

55

8

1

3

3

0

0

0

2002

293

94

76

8

5

0

1

0

0

2

2003

431

152

74

5

5

3

2

0

0

0

2004

520

203

136

7

6

2

3

0

0

3

2005

424

169

149

9

5

3

2

0

0

1

2006

508

65

85

12

1

4

1

0

0

21

2007

413

244

153

12

7

4

1

0

0

*

2008

442

353

175

10

7

2

0

0

0

8

2009*

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2010

467

324

132

14

9

0

4

5

0

13

2011

559

313

92

15

4

1

0

0

0

1

2012

1070

673

155

32

8

1

2

0

0

29

2013

631

333

145

9

4

3

3

5

 

4

 

NL

ND

DD

C1

C2

C3

C4

EV

RD

PH

Totals

7829

2871

1585

198

86

47

45

71

1

64

 


For those unfamiliar with the classifications, a summary follows:

 

NL (Nocturnal Light) - light source in night sky

 

ND (Nocturnal Disc) - light source in night sky that appears to have a definite shape

 

DD (Daylight Disc) - unknown object observed during daytime hours

 

C1 (Close Encounter of the First Kind) - ND or DD occurring within 200 metres of a witness

 

C2 (Close Encounter of the Second Kind) - C1 where physical effects left or noted

 

C3 (Close Encounter of the Third Kind) - C1 where figures/entities are encountered

 


C4 (Close Encounter of the Fourth Kind) - an alleged "abduction" or "contact" experience

 

Note: The category of Nocturnal Disc was created in the 1980s by UFOROM originally for differentiation of cases within its own report files, and has been adopted by many other groups worldwide.

 

The category of PH indicates the sighting was entirely photographic, without any actual object seen visually. Many reports listed as NL or ND or DD may also have associated photos or video, so this should not be considered exclusive. EV indicates a case in which physical evidence was observed (not necessarily related to any observed object) and RD is a case in which an object was detected with radar but not necessarily observed. UX cases are listed in the database, but not in the table above.

 

(UX cases are those in which anomalous phenomena are reported and believed by witnesses to be UFO-related, but no UFO was actually seen. These include reports of “odd sounds” and dreams.)

 


 

Hourly Distribution

 

The hourly distribution of cases has usually followed a similar pattern every year, with a peak at 2200 hours local and a trough around 0900 hours local. Since most UFOs are nocturnal lights, most sightings will occur during the evening hours. Since the number of possible observers drops off sharply near midnight, we would expect the hourly rate of UFO reports would vary with two factors: potential observers and darkness.

           

 

 

Time

2010

2011

2012

2013

12:00-12:59

8

7

7

7

13:00-13:59

12

9

8

12

14:00-14:59

7

8

14

13

15:00-15:59

13

7

14

3

16:00-16:59

15

7

15

19

17:00-17:59

24

19

22

23

18:00-18:59

33

26

42

35

19:00-19:59

54

63

84

64

20:00-20:59

78

96

153

83

21:00-21:59

107

114

311

141

22:00-22:59

140

148

363

180

23:00-23:59

132

109

217

144

00:00-00:59

53

50

129

116

01:00-01:59

48

38

66

27

02:00-02:59

30

27

55

28

03:00-03:59

22

19

45

22

04:00-04:59

11

14

33

7

05:00-05:59

7

15

20

9

06:00-06:59

17

18

20

15

07:00-07:59

7

6

14

9

08:00-08:59

5

1

7

3

09:00-09:59

5

1

4

9

10:00-10:59

7

2

8

11

11:00-11:59

12

3

9

7

 

 

 

 

Duration

 

The category of Duration is interesting in that it represents the subjective length of time the UFO experience lasted. In other words, this is the length of time the sighting lasted as estimated by the witness. Naturally, these times are greatly suspect because it is known that most people tend to badly misjudge the flow of time. Although an estimate of "one hour" may be in error by several minutes, it is unlikely that the true duration would be, for example, one minute. Furthermore, there have been cases when a UFO was observed and clocked very accurately, so that we can be reasonably certain that UFO events can last considerable periods of time.

The average duration of UFO sightings in Canada in 2013 was 13.5 minutes, similar to 2012 when the average duration was about 15 minutes. These significant lengths of time suggest some simple explanations. Previous analyses have shown that long-duration sightings tend to occur in the early morning hours, from about midnight until 6:00 a.m.

The duration of a sighting is one of the biggest clues to its explanation. Experience in studying UFO reports has shown us that short duration events are usually fireballs or bolides, and long duration events of an hour or more are very probably astronomical objects moving slowly with Earth’s rotation.

 

Colour

 

In cases where colours of an object were reported by witnesses, the most common colour in 2013 was orange, similar to previous years. The next most common colours were red, white and “multi-coloured.” Since most UFOs are nocturnal starlike objects, the abundance of white objects is not surprising. Colours such as red, orange, blue and green often are associated with bolides (fireballs). Orange is most often associated with the observation of a Chinese lanterns, the launching of which became popular during the past few years. The ‘multicoloured’ designation is problematic in that it literally covers a wide range of possibilities. This label has been used, for example, when witnesses described their UFOs as having white, red and green lights. Many of these are certainly stars or planets, which flash a variety of colours when seen low on the horizon. Aircraft also frequently are described as having more than one colour of light, such as flashing coloured wing lights. However, seen from a distance, aircraft will often be visible only as moving white lights.

 

 

Colour

2010

2011

2012

2013

 

 

 

 

 

White

162

164

233

107

Multicoloured

95

82

162

57

Orange

158

219

546

284

Yellow

26

41

57

37

Red

77

103

209

119

Green

32

21

69

38

Silver

21

14

21

16

Black

26

24

39

28

Blue

30

16

47

40

Grey

8

7

20

8

Brown

0

1

4

5

Pink

2

3

2

2

Purple

1

1

5

0

 

 

Witnesses

 

The average number of witnesses per case is approximately 2.00. This value has fluctuated between a high of 2.4 in 1996 to as low as 1.4 in 1990. In 2011, the average number of witnesses per case was 1.74, and the value in 2012 remained about the same, at 1.79. In 2013, the average number of witnesses per sighting was 1.71.

This indicates that the typical UFO experience has more than one witness, and supports the contention that UFO sightings represent observations of real, physical phenomena, since there is usually at least one corroborator present to support the sighting.

 

 

Shape

 

Witnesses’ descriptions of the shapes of UFOs vary greatly. In 2013, about 54 per cent were of “point sources”—that is, “starlike” objects or distant lights, about the same as previous years. The classic “flying saucer” or disc-shaped object comprised only around five per cent of all UFO reports in 2013, contrary to popular opinion. Even the “triangle” shape, which some ufologists have suggested has supplanted the classic “saucer,” was only five percent of the total in 2013.

The shape of a perceived object depends on many factors such as the witness’ own visual acuity, the angle of viewing, the distance of viewing and the witness’ own biases and descriptive abilities. Nevertheless, in combination with other case data such as duration, shape can be a good clue towards a UFO’s possible explanation.

 

 

 

Shape

2010

2011

2012

2013

 

 

 

 

 

Ball/Globe/Round/Orb/Sphere

186

144

296

148

Fireball

61

61

158

65

Boomerang/Crescent/Chevron/V/U

18

7

24

16

Cigar/Cylinder

35

43

47

22

Disk/Saucer

33

42

37

55

Irregular

130

97

223

79

Oval/Egg/Elliptical

15

24

30

29

Point Source

440

554

1076

640

Triangle

42

43

62

58

Diamond

 

2

1

8

Rectangle

0

3

1

16

 

 

 

Strangeness

 


The assigning of a Strangeness rating to a UFO report is based on a classification adopted by researchers who noted that the inclusion of a subjective evaluation of the degree to which a particular case is in itself unusual might yield some insight into the data. For example, the observation of a single, stationary, starlike light in the sky, seen for several hours, is not particularly unusual and might likely have a prosaic explanation such as that of a star or planet. On the other hand, a detailed observation of a saucer-shaped object which glides slowly away from a witness after an encounter with grey-skinned aliens would be considered highly strange.

The numbers of UFO reports according to strangeness rating show an inverse relationship such that the higher the strangeness rating, the fewer reports. The one exception to this relationship occurs in the case of very low strangeness cases, which are relatively few in number compared to those of moderate strangeness. It is suggested this is the case because in order for an observation to be considered a UFO, it must usually rise above an ad hoc level of strangeness, otherwise it would not be considered strange at all.

The average strangeness rating for UFO reports during 2013 was 3.67, up from the 2012 average of 3.21, where 1 is considered not strange at all and 9 is considered exceptionally unusual. Most UFOs reported are of objects which do not greatly stretch the imagination. Hollywood-style flying saucers are, in reality, relatively uncommon in UFO reports. The overall Strangeness rating of Canadian UFO reports has been sliding slightly over time.

 

Reliability

 

The average Reliability rating of Canadian UFO reports in 2013 was 3.8, down significantly from an average of 4.6 in 2012. In most years, there are approximately the same number of higher quality cases as those of low quality. However, in 2013, more reports had minimal information on the witness, little or no investigation and incomplete data or description of the object(s) observed.  Higher reliability cases include actual interviews with witnesses, a detailed case investigation, multiple witnesses, supporting documentation and other evidence. Since data for many cases are taken from websites and second-hand postings, or in fact self-postings, there is usually no significant investigation of UFO sightings. Well-investigated cases likely comprise only a small fraction of all UFO data, a fact that makes posted UFO case data have limited value.

Reliability and Strangeness ratings tend to vary in classic bell-shaped curves. In other words, there are very few cases which were both highly unusual and well-reported. Most cases are of medium strangeness and medium reliability. These are the “high-quality unknowns” which will be discussed in a later section of this study. However, there are also very few low-strangeness cases with low reliability. Low-strangeness cases, therefore, tend to be well-reported and probably have explanations.

 

 

Sources

 

UFO data used in this study were supplied by many different groups, organizations, official agencies and private individuals. Since this annual survey began in the late 1980s, more and more cases have been obtained and received via the Internet.


About 32 per cent of Canadian cases in 2013 were reported to the large organization known as the Mutual UFO Network (MUFON), which has a good online reporting system. Traditionally, the lion’s share of reports used as data came through Sightings.com, which has been relaying UFO cases reported through the former Houston, BC, Centre for UFOs (HBCCUFO), with about 32 per cent in 2010 and 35 per cent in 2011, but up to 45 per cent in 2012 and down to 24 per cent in 2013. The decline in 2013 was due to HBCCUFO scaling down its activity. 

In 2013, about nine per cent of the total cases were obtained through the private and non-profit National UFO Reporting Center in the USA. Like MUFON, NUFORC has a toll-free telephone number for reporting UFOs and a large sightings list created through voluntary submission of online report forms by witnesses.

About five per cent of all UFO sightings reported in 2013 were sent directly to Ufology Research.

Less than one per cent of all cases came as a result of information obtained through Transport Canada and the Department of National Defence.

It should be noted that the preparation of this Survey is becoming quite challenging. Few UFO investigators or researchers actually submit case data to UFOROM anymore, requiring considerable searching of online sources. And, although many sites post information about UFO sightings, very little actual UFO investigation is being conducted. In fact, it could be said that the science of UFO investigation has nearly become extinct. This does not bode well for an area of study that is under constant criticism by debunkers wishing to prove the unscientific nature of the subject.

 

Evaluation (Explanations)

 

There were four operative categories in the Canadian UFO Survey: Explained, Insufficient Information, Possible or Probable Explanation, and Unknown (or Unexplained). It is important to note that a classification of Unknown does not imply that an alien spacecraft or mysterious natural phenomenon was observed; no such interpretation can be made with certainty, based solely on the given data.

            The breakdown by Evaluation for 2013 cases was similar to results from previous years, with the percentage of unexplained cases less than 15 per cent of the total. There were a few slight differences in 2013 compared with previous years; the cases labelled as having Possible or Probable explanations were at a high of 67 per cent, while the cases considered as having Insufficient Information for an explanation were at a low of 17 per cent. Together, however, they comprised a similar percentage of reports as in previous years. The difference in 2013 reflects a subjective evaluation by researchers who question whether a particular report has enough information to consider it as having a possible explanation or if there is simply not enough information to make that judgement. This situation has likely arisen because very few UFO sightings are ever fully investigated, as most are simply reported and published online, often without any follow-up or investigation possible.

An Evaluation is made subjectively by either or both the contributing investigators and the compilers of this study. The category of Unknown is adopted if there is extensive information or data available and/or if the contributed data or case report contains enough information such that a conventional explanation cannot be satisfactorily proposed. This does not mean that the case will never be explained, but only that a viable explanation is not immediately obvious. Cases are also re-evaluated periodically as additional data or information is brought to attention or obtained through further investigation.

The level and quality of UFO report investigation varies because there are no explicit and rigourous standards for UFO investigation. Investigators who are “believers” might be inclined to consider most UFO sightings as mysterious, whereas those with more of a skeptical predisposition might tend to subconsciously (or consciously) reduce the Unknowns in their files.


 

 


TABLE 4

Evaluation of Canadian UFO Data

 

%

 

 

 

 

 

Explained

Insufficient Evidence

Probable

Unexplained

1989

0.00%

52.50%

33.30%

14.20%

1990

0.00%

46.40%

40.20%

13.40%

1991

1.20%

48.50%

41.80%

8.50%

1992

8.00%

37.00%

33.00%

22.00%

1993

31.50%

34.80%

23.50%

10.20%

1994/95

19.10%

33.30%

35.20%

12.40%

1996

9.30%

40.70%

33.70%

16.30%

1997

6.00%

37.30%

43.00%

13.70%

1998

5.10%

38.70%

44.80%

11.30%

1999

3.80%

31.50%

51.90%

12.70%

2000

8.75%

35.74%

42.59%

12.93%

2001

5.88%

34.76%

44.12%

15.24%

2002

2.48%

39.75%

39.75%

18.01%

2003

16.34%

24.67%

42.50%

16.49%

2004

8.62%

22.68%

53.17%

15.53%

2005

12.09%

25.36%

47.85%

14.69%

2006

7.07%

44.84%

36.28%

11.82%

2007

2.03%

32.06%

50.12%

15.78%

2008

2.69%

27.99%

59.46%

9.86%

2009*

 

 

 

 

2010

1.96%

38.64%

51.34%

8.06%

2011

3.55%

40.67%

44.83%

10.95%

2012

3.08%

39.90%

50.55%

7.47%

2013

1.61%

17.29%

66.53%

14.58%


 

 

Explained

Insufficient Evidence

Probable

Unexplained

1989

0

74

47

20

1990

0

90

78

26

1991

2

80

69

14

1992

17

83

74

49

1993

154

170

115

50

1994/95

71

124

131

46

1996

24

105

87

42

1997

17

106

122

39

1998

10

75

87

22

1999

10

82

135

32

2000

23

94

112

34

2001

22

130

165

57

2002

12

192

192

87

2003

110

166

286

111

2004

76

200

469

137

2005

93

195

368

113

2006

52

330

267

87

2007

17

268

419

132

2008

27

281

597

99

2009*

 

 

 

 

2010

19

374

497

78

2011

35

401

442

108

2012

61

771

1002

148

2013

19

204

785

172

 

871

4595

6546

1703

 

 

In 2013, the percentage of Unknowns was 14.5 per cent. There were 172 Unknowns out of 1,180 total cases in 2013.

If we look only at the Unknowns with a Strangeness of 6 or greater and a Reliability rating of 6 or greater, we are left with 48 high-quality Unknowns in 2013 (about four per cent of the total). This is in line with previous studies, such as USAF Blue Book, which found three to four per cent of their cases were "excellent" Unknowns. As it is, these 48 Canadian cases in 2013 can be reduced further by eliminating those in which investigation is not complete or details not made available for outside evaluation.

It should be emphasized again that even high-quality Unknowns do not imply alien visitation. Each case may still have an explanation following further investigation. And of those that remain unexplained, they may remain unexplained, but still are not incontrovertible proof of extraterrestrial intervention or some mysterious natural phenomenon.

The interpretation of the 172 Unknowns in 2013 is that these cases were among the most challenging of all the reports received. It should be noted that most UFO cases go unreported, and that there may be ten times as many UFO sightings that go unreported as those which get reported to public, private or military agencies. Furthermore, it should be noted that some cases with lower reliability ratings suffer only from incomplete investigations, and that they may well be more mysterious than those on the list of Unknowns. And, above all, these cases are not proof of extraterrestrial visitation.

            The increase in the numbers of UFO reports with time likely does not have a simple explanation. It could be related to a growing awareness within the general population that there are agencies which collect UFO reports. It could be that there really are more UFOs physically present in the sky. It could be that the collection of UFO data is becoming more efficient. It could be that there are more private websites allowing or inviting people to report their UFO sightings. While media have been noted as playing a definite role in UFO waves (a national increase in UFO sightings), media coverage of UFO reports has significantly declined over the past decade while the number of reports has risen. Perhaps a cultural factor is at work as well, where “aliens” and UFOs are now well-entrenched within the societal mindset and are accepted as more probable than fiction. This question by itself is deserving of scientific study.

 


 



Most Interesting Canadian “Unknowns” in 2013

 

The following are those Canadian UFO reports in 2013 which had a Reliability Rating greater than 6, a Strangeness Rating greater than 6, were also assigned an Evaluation of Unknown, and for which details are available for evaluation.

 

 

January 8, 2013                     5:30 pm          Musquodoboit, NS

Two children had been sledding on a small hill when they saw a large object coming towards them over the trees. They heard a beeping noise and watched the object shaped like “a massive hotel” with protrusions and windows flew over a nearby house and out of sight.

 

January 25, 2013                   9:23 pm          Tsuu T’ina Reserve, AB

Strange lights were observed south of her house by a witness who took photos with her camera. After about five minutes the lights took off into the sky and then several military helicopters were seen flying in the area. The incident was investigated by police.

 

May 4, 2013                           2:45 am           St-Jerome, PQ

A witness was on his balcony using his telescope to look at a star when a bright flash lit up his surroundings. He looked up to see a large rectangular object moving over the treetops and making a whistling sound. After a few seconds, it disappeared.

 

July 13, 2013                          9:00 pm          Notre-Dame-de Ile-Perrot, PQ

A witness saw a red glowing sphere moving horizontally over trees on the horizon, then it moved vertically upwards and disappeared. It seemed to have “a kind of 'structure” and was apparently solid.

 

September 27, 2013               8:51 pm          Winnipeg, MB

An air traffic controller saw four lights in a V-shaped formation moving together silently overhead. The witness said the lights were at an altitude of about one or two thousand feet and were heading slowly northwest. Because there was no visible aircraft beacon, the witness did not believe the lights were on an ordinary aircraft.

 

September 28, 2013               8:13 pm          Portage la Prairie, MB

A former helicopter pilot and two other people watched as many as 50 orange lights moving in the southwest sky in pairs following the same trajectory south to north. They watched the procession for at least five minutes.

 


http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-XMpvktjMvWk/UPSxZ92Tt1I/AAAAAAAAARE/Ek8juCn0pGA/s1600/UFO+Jan+2013+002b.jpg

January 8, 2013                     5:30 pm          Musquodoboit, NS

 

 

 

tsuutina4

January 25, 2013                   9:23 pm          Tsuu T’ina Reserve, AB

 

 

 

 

 


Appendix

 

In addition to the six high-quality unknowns listed, one additional case was thought to have significant merit to be mentioned:

 

During a snowstorm on February 23, 2013, around 10:00 pm in St-Georges-de-Beauce, PQ, a woman was washing her dishes while looking out her kitchen window. She saw three orange lights coming from afar, and called to her husband to come look with her outside. When the lights passed overhead, she took two photos and then filmed a short video with her phone’s camera. The lights seemed to change shape and were “morphing.” As they watched, another small flashing light joined the three and sped away with them towards the northwest.

 

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